For the last three years, the war in Ukraine has defined global politics. And, under the new administration, it seems the conflict is going to be even more relevant, as the U.S. and Russia have reopened diplomatic talks. The recent meeting in Saudi Arabia marks the first direct negotiations between the U.S. and Russia since 2022. So, what does this mean for Ukraine? What does this mean for Russia-U.S. relations?
Well, it seems like Ukraine's voice has been largely stripped away from the conversation. The U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov agreed to appoint teams to oversee the negotiations, explore economic cooperation, and restore ties between the two countries. However, the talks were held without Ukrainian representatives. Without giving Ukraine a voice in the matter, the country is stripped away of its control, and Washington and Moscow both treat the nation more like a territory than a sovereign state. Rightfully so, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy rejected any deal made without his country’s input, while European leaders convened an emergency summit to discuss their growing concerns for the region. Despite reassurances from U.S. officials that Ukraine would "eventually" be involved in the discussions, the exclusion of the nation has fueled fears that Washington could make decisions that do not prioritize Ukraine.
Russia has maintained a firm stance on territorial control, demanding Ukraine cede regions including: Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia: along with recognition of Crimea as Russian territory. Furthermore, Russia insists that Ukraine abandon aspirations of joining NATO.
Trump’s administration has signaled openness to negotiation, with National Security Advisor Mike Waltz acknowledging that discussions on territory and security guarantees are inevitable. However, the question remains as to whom these negotiations will seek to help.
While Russia has maintained its military campaign, its economy is increasingly more strained. The ruble has lost more than half its value, and inflation is soaring. With rising economic pressures and continued Western sanctions, Russia may finally see diplomacy as a necessary step.
At the same time, the U.S. has hinted at potential economic cooperation with Russia if a resolution is reached. Rubio suggested that ending the war could “unlock incredible opportunities” for U.S.-Russia relations— is Washington's motive really about the protection of Ukraine or about potential economic benefits?
The U.S. and Russia are set to meet again in the coming weeks. Will these next negotiations result in a meaningful peace deal, or is this just another chapter in a long geopolitical power play? Will Kyiv have a voice in Washington-Moscow discussions?
Hi Simon, I think your article is very educational and well written. My question for you is, do you think Saudi Arabia being the location for the meeting between U.S. and Russia has any meaning?
This is such a detailed explanation of the players in recent negotiations over Ukrainian sovereignty. The map makes it clear what territory might be lost in the near future.